Until the National Bureau of Economic Research says we’re in a recession, then officially, we aren’t in one. It doesn’t matter at all what the reality is that people are experiencing: lost jobs, wage reductions, stagnant wages, rising costs, reduced purchasing power, longer soup kitchen lines, increasing foreclosures and bankruptcies (which we’d have if Bush hadn’t signed the law that makes it so much more difficult for low and middle income people to file for bankruptcy), larger homeless population, people drowning in debt caused by usurious interest rates which aren’t even close to earned interest rates, and curtailed luxuries. As long as the GNP continues to rise, however minutely, the NBER will not declare a recession or depression.
It’s like the weather, if it’s 33ºF, we’d say it’s freezing - and water, given the windchill, will start icing up, but the meteorologists won’t say “freezing” until the actual temperature falls to or below 32ºF.
Our experience is that it is freezing, no matter what the meteorologists say. People will die in weather like that, others will experience hardships from it; yet, it’s technically not freezing.
Apparently, the NBER feels the same way. Regardless of the actual experiences of people, until specific markers are hit, they won’t declare that we’re in a recession.
I find this kind of willful blindness disturbing, because until we are “officially” in a recession, most government agencies and businesses that could turn the economy around while it’s still easy to fix will do nothing. They are waiting for that official declaration, and until then, they can keep deluding themselves that everything’s good.
Of course, it doesn’t help that the very people who make those sort of policy decisions keep voting themselves enormous pay raises while denying any relief to those who are working hard and suffering from stagnant wages.
We don’t wait to prepare for winter weather until it’s at or below freezing; why would we wait until we’re “officially” in a recession to prepare for it?
I don’t think we should wait until the shit hits the fan before we are motivated to do something about it. I think all right-minded people have ingrained habits of preparedness. You don’t have to be educated or wealthy to be right-minded, you just have to be observant and ready to act upon your observations. Survival isn’t just for worst case scenarios. How many of us had to deal with a burst water pipe? A tornado? A heavy thunderstorm that that set fires and knocked out power? Ice storms that left us locked in for a week? Right-minded people are prepared for each of the likely events that could inconvenience them from the trivial to the monumental. And then, once prepared, they don’t have to expend a lot of thought on it anymore, just routine maintenance.
When you see the air in your tire is low, what do you do? Wait until it’s completely flat and on the rim to take it in to be fixed, or do you air it up and see if it deflates again, or do you air it up and take it in for immediate repair? Me, I tend to be middle of the road - I’d air it up and if it deflates again, I’d take care of it immediately. I have a plan and I stick to it. If it were critical that my car be in constant good mechanical shape (an impending disaster where I’d have to evacuate, perhaps), I’d make sure the car was in excellent shape before needing to evacuate, full tank, aired up tires, emergency kit replenished in car, and I wouldn’t wait to fix a slow leak or flat. But on an average day with no looming disasters, I’d wait. Sometimes, drastic air temperatures account for tire pressure changes, and there’s no sense spending unnecessary time at a mechanic’s if I don’t have to.
I think that’s pretty right-minded. If you see a problem, you take care of it before it gets bad. It’s cheaper, faster, and easier to fix it early than to wait until it’s all broke and desperate, when it will cost more, take more time, and probably not be as good as new (or near enough as makes no difference).
So, why is our government not being right-minded? I don’t know. It’s certainly not because they don’t know - my legislators have been kept fully informed of the progress of recession in my letters to them. If they’ve chosen to ignore a voting, tax-paying constituent in order to pursue their personal goals of glory and riches, they won’t get my vote next time around. Government officials are employees of the voters, and poor performers need to be supervised or voted out of office and someone more competent voted in.
